Trump’s first 100 days back in office have been a whirlwind for the crypto markets, marked by turbulence and unmet expectations. Despite some pro-Bitcoin announcements, the crypto world has faced disappointment.
The unveiling of the $TRUMP token before the inauguration sparked controversy, with critics citing conflicts of interest and security concerns. The token has since plummeted by 82%, while $MELANIA has crashed by nearly 97%.
Speculation about executive orders for a strategic Bitcoin reserve on day one proved unfounded, though BTC briefly rallied to $109,000 on Jan. 20 before declining. Trump did fulfill some campaign promises, including granting Ross Ulbricht a full pardon, but other actions, like clemency for Sam Bankman-Fried, remain unrealized.
Several pro-crypto figures joined Trump’s cabinet, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who champions the crypto economy. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick faced scrutiny over ties to Tether, while David Sacks was appointed as the first AI and crypto czar.
Trump’s businesses have expanded their crypto exposure, with the Trump Media and Technology Group amassing reserves and launching ETFs. On March 2, Trump announced plans for a U.S. crypto reserve featuring XRP, Solana, and Cardano, causing altcoin surges. However, Bitcoin and Ether were later confirmed as central to the reserve.
The initial news that Bitcoin (BTC) would be grouped with other altcoins was met with widespread criticism, with experts labeling the proposal as “ridiculous” and “messed up.” Concerns arose over the plan’s feasibility, including fears that congressional approval might be required. Details about allocations, funding, and implementation were notably absent.
However, these concerns became moot when Trump made a significant U-turn, signing an executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve as originally planned, alongside a separate stockpile of other cryptocurrencies.
Despite being a landmark moment for Bitcoin adoption, the announcement triggered sharp sell-offs. The executive order specified that no new BTC, beyond those seized from criminals, would be purchased for the reserve unless acquisitions were budget-neutral. This also spelled bad news for XRP, SOL, and ADA, as the U.S. currently holds none of these tokens.
Bitcoin enthusiasts had hoped the U.S. would become a major BTC buyer, potentially fulfilling Senator Cynthia Lummis’s vision of amassing one million coins within five years. Such a move would have driven prices higher by tightening supply. However, using taxpayer money for this effort was deemed hypocritical, especially given Elon Musk’s push to downsize the federal government.
Data from Arkham Intelligence indicates that the U.S. currently holds about 198,000 BTC, valued at $18.8 billion. However, JAN3 CEO Samson Mow suggests the actual reserve is smaller, as 95,000 coins are set to be returned to Bitfinex. Mow views Trump’s policy as “immense” in significance, potentially inspiring other nations to follow suit.
The announcement was followed by the first-ever White House Crypto Summit on March 7, attended by industry leaders like Michael Saylor and Brian Armstrong. Reviews were mixed, with some calling it more of a political showcase than a substantive policy discussion.
Meanwhile, Trump faced accusations of deliberately crashing the stock market to pressure the Federal Reserve into lowering interest rates. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 suffered heavy losses, with Bitcoin experiencing even steeper declines due to its correlation with these indices.
The situation worsened after “Liberation Day,” when Trump announced sweeping tariffs on key trading partners, significantly raising the cost of imports. BTC dropped to $80,000 in early April amid recession fears and escalating tensions between Washington and Beijing. Temporary relief came when reciprocal tariffs were paused for 90 days, though tariffs on China soared to 145%. Exemptions for smartphones and computers offered some optimism, but the administration’s unpredictability left investors wary, with many shifting to gold.
Amid this chaos, Trump intensified his criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, suggesting on Truth Social that his “termination cannot come fast enough.” While presidents typically lack the authority to fire independent agency heads, a pending Supreme Court case could change this precedent, raising concerns about market stability.
The confirmation of SEC Chair Paul Atkins, replacing anti-crypto Gary Gensler, was slightly delayed but finally occurred last week. One of Atkins’s first tasks will be deciding on the approval of exchange-traded funds for altcoins like XRP.
Despite the $TRUMP token’s plummeting value, its creators announced an exclusive dinner for the top 220 holders, sparking a race to accumulate the token. While the announcement caused a 64% price spike, some analysts warned it could be a trap for FOMO buyers.
Over the past 100 days, Bitcoin has fallen 12%, while the S&P 500 is down 8.6%. A CNN poll reveals that 59% of Americans believe Trump’s policies have worsened the economy, with 60% citing an exacerbated cost-of-living crisis. Recession fears are mounting.
Hopes for BTC reaching a new all-time high this year are fading. Polymarket odds for Bitcoin surpassing $110,000 by 2025 stand at 67%, dropping to 54% for $120,000, 40% for $130,000, and 30% for $150,000. These targets, once considered conservative, now seem increasingly unlikely.
Trump’s unpredictable approach makes forecasting Bitcoin’s trajectory challenging. Bold price predictions should be taken with caution. With 1,361 days remaining in his term, much remains uncertain.